Transfer portal, coaching changes shape college football's most unpredictable teams for 2024 season (2025)

The transition from the Group of Five ranks to the power conference level is not always smooth, as the Big 12's four newcomers in 2022 proved with their various degrees of struggles. SMU is better positioned to compete right out of the gate in the ACC, though, with its talented roster and exciting coaching staff, and the Mustangs' schedule opens pathways to a respectable Year 1 win total. Quarterback Preston Stone could instantly be one of the league's top quarterbacks. How the rest of the roster stacks up against power conference competition will be the difference between a tough acclimation and dark-horse league title contention.

The Big 12 could realistically account for many of the nation's most unpredictable teams given the parity in the top half of the expanded conference. Kansas is the biggest question mark of the bunch, though, because of its quarterback situation. Jalon Daniels is among college football's most dynamic quarterbacks when healthy, and the roster around him is on an upward trajectory that could lead to a conference title. But the dual-threat weapon has yet to start a full season and missed the majority of the 2023 season due to nagging injuries. Another prolonged absence would spell trouble for the Jayhawks in the Big 12 race.

Roster turnover is more common in college football now than ever before, but what Washington endured this offseason is exceptionally rare. The Huskies lost nearly every last one of their starters and primary backups from the 2023 team that advanced to the national championship game, so in addition to their brand new coaching staff, they will also field an almost entirely new roster during their debut Big Ten season. Regression from the perfect 2023 regular season is essentially a guarantee, but just how far the Huskies fall in Year 1 of the Jedd Fisch era is difficult to foresee.

South Carolina regressed last year by three wins, yet there remains plenty of optimism for the program's future under Shane Beamer. The fourth-year coach has proof of concept in that he built the Gamecocks into a top-25 team in short order at the beginning of his tenure, and another one of those strong years would be possible if LaNorris Sellers flashes excellence as a first-year starting quarterback and if his offensive line takes a much-needed step forward. Those uncertainties, combined with a tricky schedule, give the Gamecocks a wide range of possible outcomes.

A lot hinges on five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola. He displayed tremendous upside not only as a rising prospect but also in his first few months on campus at Nebraska, and frankly, he does not have to be a star right away to provide an upgrade at the position. The Huskers were a decent signal-caller away from snapping their bowl eligibility drought in 2023, and getting back above .500 for the first time in more than a half-decade is the goal in Year 2 under Matt Rhule. Reliance on a freshman quarterback for a program that consistently plays in tight games means 2024 could be anywhere from a special season to a major disappointment.

Lincoln Riley faces pressure to reverse the trend at USC after a supremely disappointing 2023 season. He did everything right, on paper, to spark a defensive turnaround with his hire of star coordinator D'Anton Lynnand recruiting efforts, but everything on that side of the ball is unproven ahead of this pivotal campaign. Embarking on the post-Caleb Williams era also comes with its uncertainties on the offensive side of the ball, even though Miller Moss had a historically great debut in the Holiday Bowl. Nothing between .500 and Big Ten title contention would be much of a surprise for this wild card program.

Each of the last few years came with breakthrough potential for , but that elusive step forward never surfaced under the previous coaching staff. Mike Elko did just about everything right in his first offseason at the helm, though, and positioned the Aggies to compete in the SEC's upper echelon early in his tenure. The heavy reliance on transfers throws some uncertainty into the equation, and whether Conner Weigman can rekindle the momentum he built before last year's season-ending injury remains to be seen, but an instant step forward from 2023's results is entirely possible if everything clicks.

Jackson Arnold has as much upside as any first-year starting quarterback in college football, and transfer wide receiver Deion Burks gives him an electric go-to option. But an offensive line that has five new starters is a glaring weakness that could lead to problems against one of the SEC's most daunting schedules. All of those moving parts and a tough slate make Oklahoma perhaps the most unpredictable team in the conference. If the Sooners hold their own in Year 1 of their SEC era, excitement around the program would rightfully flourish.

The outlook for Tennessee's 2024 campaign ranges from College Football Playoff afterthought to quiet SEC championship contender. The disparity in projections stems largely from varying buy-in to Nico Iamaleava as an elite quarterback during his first year atop the depth chart. The former five-star recruit could be anything from a mid-tier SEC starter to a Heisman Trophy hopeful, and which end of that spectrum he lands on will determine the Volunteers' ceiling. Tennessee would be in good shape even in the worst-case outcome, though, given its tremendous defense.

Looming potential punishment for the Michigan program and first-year head coach Sherrone Moore amid the NCAA's investigation into last year's sign-stealing saga only further clouds the uncertain forecast for the Wolverines' 2024 campaign. The defense could be college football's best with Will Johnson and Mason Graham leading the way, and the offensive line looks as formidable as always. Questions about the offensive skill positions, though, make the Wolverines underdogs in the Big Ten race after they ran the conference in the final years of Jim Harbaugh's tenure.